Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First quarter (April-June) of 2018-19 

The  Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of  Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1, of 2018-19, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q1 of 2018-19 are presented below:

I           ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a)        At constant (2011-2012) prices

3.         GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `33.74 lakh crore, as against `31.18 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.2 percent.  Quarterly GVA at basic price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `31.63 lakh crore, as against `29.29 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.0 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4. The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2018-19 over Q1 of 2017-18 are ‘manufacturing,‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’‘construction’ and‘public administration, defence and other services’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’  and financial, real estate and professional services is estimated to be 5.3 percent, 0.1 percent, 6.7 percent, and 6.5 percent respectively during this period.

5.         Industry analysis

The first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Rabi season of 2017-18 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period April-June 2018-19. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1^st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue.

Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport, etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period April-June 2018-19 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-June 2018-19 based on data received from BSE/NSE hasbeen taken into account.  Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1     Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 5.3 percent as compared to growth of 3.0percent in Q1 2017-18. According  to  the  information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q1 of 2018-19, the production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses registered growth rates of 15.0 percent, 1.2 percent,15.6 percent and 17.3 percent respectively during  the  Rabi  season of  agriculture year 2017-18 (which ended in June 2018). Among the commercial crops, the production ofoilseeds registered a growth of 5.6 percent during the Rabi season of 2017-18. The crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 55.1 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector.  Around 44.9 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of about 8.1 percent in Q1 of 2018-19.

Mining and quarrying

5.2.Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 0.1 percent as compared to growth of 1.7 percent in Q1 2017-18.  The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of13.2percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to (-) 4.4 percent, 0.3 percent, 4.0 percent and 1.1 percent during Q1 of 2017-18.

Manufacturing

5.3   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 13.5 percent as compared to growth of (-) 1.8 percent in Q1 2017-18.   The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over75 percent in the manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE.  The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of over 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of 5.2 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 1.6 percent during Q1 of 2017-18.

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

5.4   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q1 2018-19 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  grew by 7.3 percent as compared to growth of 7.1 percent in Q1 2017-18.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 4.9 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 5.3 percent in Q1 of 2017-18.

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 8.7 percent as compared to growth of 1.8 percent in Q1 2017-18.  Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement, consumption of finished steel and IIP of non-metallic minerals registered growth rates of 14.2 percent, 8.4 percent and 10.5 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to (-) 3.3 percent,7.6 percent and (-) 3.2 percent respectively, in Q1 of 2017-18.

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6.   Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 6.7 percent as compared to growth of 8.4 percent in Q1 2017-18. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth.  With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30th November, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 4.0 percent, 3.7 percent and 17.1 percent respectively, during April-June, 2018-19. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 8.2 percent and 1.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2018-19.

Financial, real estate and professional services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 8.4 percent in Q1 2017-18.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 74.6 percent.The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for Real estate, business services andcomputer related activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 6.8 percent and 10.9 percent respectively as compared to 12.8 percent and 8.2 percent respectively during 2017-18.

 

Public administration, defence and other services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q1 2018-19 from this sector grew by 9.9 percent as  compared to growth of 13.5 percent in Q1 2017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments excluding subsidies grew by 14.5 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 19.8 percent in Q1 of 2017-18. Taxes on products grew by 23.5 percent in Q1 of 2018-19 as compared to 13.6 percent in Q1 of 2017-18.

(b)       At current prices

6.         GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at `44.33 lakh crore, as against `38.97 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 13.8 percent. GVA at Basic Price at current prices in Q1 of 2018-19, is estimated at `41.02 lakh crore, as against `36.34 lakh crore in Q1, 2017-18, showing an increase of 12.9 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (7.0 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (18.0 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (17.7 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (13.2 percent) ‘construction’ (13.8 percent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ (11.7 percent), ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ (12.1 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services’ (15.4 percent).

(c)        Price indices used as deflators

7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups – food articles, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities has risen by 1.5 percent, 15.8 percent, 3.8 percent, 5.6 percent and 4.7 percent respectively during Q1 of 2018-19 as against (-) 1.7 percent, 6.1 percent, 2.7 percent, 0.7 percent and 2.3 percent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 4.8 percent during Q1 of 2018-19 over Q1 of 2017-18.

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.  The components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `25.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `22.76 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18.  At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ` 18.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `17.06 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 58.4 percent and 54.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.4 per cent and 54.7 per cent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.53 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `4.91 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18.At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.97lakhcrore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `3.69 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant(2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 12.5 percent and11.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 12.6 percent and11.8percent respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `12.75 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `11.20 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `10.65 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19 as against `9.68 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q1 of 2018-19 are estimated at 28.8 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 28.7 percent and 31.0percent, respectively in Q1 of 2017-18.

12.       Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q1 of 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at constant (2011-2012) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 4.

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2018 (Q2 of 2018-19) will be on 30.11.2018.

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN

Q1(APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-2012 prices)

 

Industry	APRIL–JUNE(Q1)
	Gross Value Addedat Basic Prices for Q1(` incrore)			Percentage change Over previous year Q1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
Agriculture, forestry &fishing	386986	398609	419747	3.0	5.3
Mining &quarrying	99129	100811	100954	1.7	0.1
Manufacturing	510673	501599	569094	-1.8	13.5
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services	62114	66537	71383	7.1	7.3
Construction	225077	229196	249103	1.8	8.7
Trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting	517644	560913	598724	8.4	6.7
Financial, real estate & professional services	659189	714789	761405	8.4	6.5
Public administration, defence& other services	314250	356731	392211	13.5	9.9
GVA at Basic Price	2775063	2929185	3162622	5.6	8.0

 

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-2012 prices)

 

Item	APRIL– JUNE(Q1)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1(` incrore)			RATES OF GDP (%)
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure(PFCE)	1595219	1705974	1852663	54.7	54.9
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure(GFCE)	313990	369303	397215	11.8	11.8
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	960255	968141	1065217	31.0	31.6
4. Change in Stocks	22498	21840	23718	0.7	0.7
5. Valuables	37008	82235	75650	2.6	2.2
6. Exports	603715	639145	720410	20.5	21.4
7. Less Imports	625621	741150	834103	23.8	24.7
8.Discrepancies	46358	72929	73213	2.3	2.2
GDP	2953421	3118417	3373983	100.0	100.0
GDP (% change over previous year)		5.6	8.2

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GVA AT BASIC PRICESIN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at current prices)

 

Industry	APRIL– JUNE(Q1)
	Gross Value Added at Basic Prices for Q1 (` in crore)			Percentage change Over previous year Q1
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
Agriculture, forestry &fishing	563170	566713	606107	0.6	7.0
Mining &quarrying	83403	94696	111699	13.5	18.0
Manufacturing	575041	579718	682421	0.8	17.7
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services	90327	97388	110246	7.8	13.2
Construction	260680	271537	309052	4.2	13.8
Trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting	602741	671076	749349	11.3	11.7
Financial, real estate & professional services	767018	859451	963864	12.1	12.1
Public administration, defence & other services	421386	493286	569466	17.1	15.4
GVA at Basic Price	3363766	3633866	4102203	8.0	12.9

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF EXPENDITURES OF GDPIN

Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2018-19

(at current prices)

Item	APRIL –JUNE (Q1)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product for Q1(` in crore)			RATES OF GDP (%)
	2016-17	2017-18	2018-19	2017-18	2018-19
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure(PFCE)	2082484	2276387	2589809	58.4	58.4
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure(GFCE)	407970	490957	553398	12.6	12.5
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	1089771	1120067	1275225	28.7	28.8
4. Change in Stocks	24726	24522	27470	0.6	0.6
5. Valuables	40534	84431	71687	2.2	1.6
6. Exports	704192	760244	892035	19.5	20.1
7. Less Imports	757439	912714	1069029	23.4	24.1
8.Discrepancies	6254	53504	92770	1.4	2.1
GDP	3598492	3897399	4433365	100.0	100.0
GDP (% change over previous year)		8.3	13.8